Braveheart’s Forward Look – GW27 – the BIG double hangover

Introduction

This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week’s Premier League fixtures.

All player data in this article is from the last six gameweeks. All data is correct as of 05 March 2021.

The forward look – GW27:

BurneyvArsenal
18%Win %62%
18%Clean sheet %44%
Vydra (4)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Aubameyang (3)
Lowton (4)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Smith Rowe (1)
Lowton (42.8)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Leno (22.2)
1.62Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)1.0 (second fewest)
1.62Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.67
Sheffield UnitedvSouthampton
27%Win %49%
25%Clean sheet %40%
McGoldrick (3)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Adams (4)
Norwood (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Redmond (3)
Ramsdale (32.7)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Bednarek (28.6)
1.29Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.0
3.14 (most)Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)2.43
Aston VillavWolves
41%Win %33%
33%Clean sheet %29%
Traore (4)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Neves (2)
Watkins (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Neto (3)
Martinez (37.9)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Neto (36.8)
1.29Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)1.14 (third fewest)
1.57Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)2.57 (joint second most)
BrightonvLeicester
39%Win %36%
33%Clean sheet %31%
Welbeck (3)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Vardy (4)
Gross (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Maddison (3)
Veltman (35.0)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Schmeichel (30.7)
1.83Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.0
0.83 (third fewest)Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)2.29
West BromvNewcastle
41%Win %33%
35%Clean sheet %28%
Diagne (7)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Willock (2)
Pereira (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Fraser (3)
Bartley (33.6)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Lewis (24.5)
2.0Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)1.67
2.14Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)2.0
LiverpoolvFulham
78%Win %10%
50%Clean sheet %10%
Salah (8)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Maja (4)
Alexander-Arnold (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Lookman (3)
Salah (47.1)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Adarabioyo (44.9)
2.43 (joint second most)Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)1.62
2.57 (joint second most)Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.62
Man CityvMan United
67%Win %15%
41%Clean sheet %14%
Jesus (7)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Cavani (4)
Sterling (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Fernandes (4)
Ederson (43.2)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Fernandes (41.9)
2.88 (most)Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.14
0.62 (fewest)Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.14
TottenhamvCrystal Palace
69%Win %14%
48%Clean sheet %14%
Kane (5)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Van Arnholt (1)
Son (5)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Milivojievic (1)
Son (36.0)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Guaita (33.0)
1.57Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)0.57 (fewest)
1.71Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.86
ChelseavEverton
65%Win %17%
46%Clean sheet %17%
Werner (7)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Richarlison (6)
Mount (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Sigurdsson (3)
Azpilicueta (39.7)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Richarlison (34.8)
2.29Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.0
0.71 (second fewest)Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)2.25
West HamvLeeds
49%Win %30%
28%Clean sheet %18%
Antonio (5)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Bamford (5)
Cresswell (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Raphinha (6)
Coufal (30.9)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Raphinha (44.5)
2.0Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.43 (joint second most)
1.5Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.71
Man CityvSouthampton
83%Win %8%
53%Clean sheet %8%
Jesus (7)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Adams (4)
Sterling (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Redmond (3)
Ederson (43.2)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Bednarek (28.6)
2.88 (most)Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.0
0.62 (fewest)Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)2.43

Braveheart’s GW26 review:

A frustrating gameweek for a lot of FPL managers. My triple captain Kane didn’t haul the level of points I was hoping for (8 x 3) but it was better than nothing I suppose! If I didn’t transfer in Kane, I’d have brought in DCL (who blanked) and triple captained Salah or Bruno (who both blanked). Though, I’d have had Son’s points, my moves still ended up in a net gain from the alternatives I considered.

I ended up with 72 points (net) with a red arrow from 75k to 105k. Very frustrating but I suppose inevitable as last week was a week in which many managers played their bench boosts. Dias (12), Targett (7), Gundogan (6) and Watkins (7) were the only other players who returned in my team. So we move onto GW27 was a single free transfer and £0.1m in the bank.

Braveheart’s DGW27 reveal:

This week we have a mini-double gameweek for Man City and Southampton. I’m not expecting much from this one to be honest (famous last words) as with Pep roulette a double can often become a single for City players and, as Southampton play City and blank in GW29, I do not intend on using up any precious transfers to bring in Saints players. If you still have your free hit and are “dead-ending” your team ahead of using your free hit in GW29, then you might want to consider bringing in Ings. But otherwise I’d be steering clear of the Saints.

I already have three City players so I will go into battle with Dias, Cancelo and Gundogan. And hope that they all play and return more than the likes of Stones, Sterling and KDB. I go into this gameweek with 0.1m in the bank, one free transfer and an injured Harvey Barnes. So my transfer this week, like for many FPL managers, will be replacing the Leicester man. But with whom?

My tip for all managers before making any transfers this week is to carry out a GW29 count on your team (only Fulham, Leeds, Brighton, Newcastle, West Ham, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Tottenham have a fixture that week). I’m sitting on seven players for GW29 at the moment:

  • zero goalkeepers,
  • three defenders – Dallas, Targett and Coufal,
  • one midfielder – Soucek,
  • three forwards – Kane, Bamford and Watkins.

My midfield short-list (of players I don’t already own) for GW29 is: Aubameyang, Son or Bale, Grealish, Raphinha, Saka, Lingard or Lookman. I’m unable to upgrade Barnes due to not enough money in the bank so if I want to bring in a replacement this week without downgrading elsewhere for a hit then my options are Raphinha, Saka, Lingard or Lookman. At the time of writing one of those players (for midfielders under £7.0m) is top for shots-in-the-box, second for expected goals, top for big chances created, top for expected assists and top for xFPL. That man is Raphinha and, subject to any surprises in the press conferences, he is the man I’ll be transferring into my team this week for the injured Barnes.For captaincy, I like to keep things simple. Gundogan was rested against Wolves (though bagged an assist off of the bench) and so he has my armband. My vice captain is Kane., though I may switch him to the captaincy depending on what Pep has to say at his press conference.

My squad heading into DGW27 (if I make my planned transfer) is as follows:

  • Pope v Arsenal (h)
  • Dias v Man United (h) and Southampton (h)
  • Cancelo v Man United (h) and Southampton (h)
  • Targett v Wolves (h)
  • Salah v Fulham (h)
  • Fernandes v Man City (a)
  • Gundogan v Man United (h) and Southampton (h) (captain)
  • Raphinha v West Ham (a)
  • Kane v Crystal Palace (h)
  • Bamford v West Ham (a)
  • Watkins v Wolves (h)
  • My likely bench order:
  • McCarthy v Sheffield United (a) and Man City (a) – not in my team as he has lost his place to Fraser Forster
  • Dallas v West Ham (a)
  • Soucek v Leeds (h)
  • Coufal v Leeds (h)

The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW27. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!

FPL obsessive | Scottish | Top 200 of all-time.

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