Braveheart’s Forward Look – GW23 – double planning revisited

Introduction

This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week’s Premier League fixtures.

All player data in this article is from the last six gameweeks. All data is correct as of 05 February 2021.

The forward look – GW23:

Aston VillavArsenal
41%Win %36%
25%Clean sheet %23%
Watkins (6)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Lacazette (6)
Grealish (4)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Saka (2)
Watkins (36.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Lacazette (31.7)
13Team big chances (last 6 GWs)13
14Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)7
BurnleyvBrighton
31%Win %43%
31%Clean sheet %38%
Tarkowski (2)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Maupay (4)
Westwood (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Trossard (2)
Pope (31.4)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Dunk (31.4)
5 (joint second fewest)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)9
13Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)8
NewcastlevSouthampton
36%Win %40%
28%Clean sheet %31%
Wilson (5)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Adams (3)
Fraser (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Ings (2)
Darlow (32.1)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Stephens (22.6)
8Team big chances (last 6 GWs)8
12Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)18 (second most)
FulhamvWest Ham
31%Win %46%
25%Clean sheet %33%
Cavaleiro (3)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Antonio (5)
Lookman (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Coufal (3)
Areola (26.6)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Dawson (34.1)
8Team big chances (last 6 GWs)15 (third most)
19 (most)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)6 (joint second fewest)
Man UnitedvEverton
67%Win %16%
42%Clean sheet %13%
Martial (6)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Calvert-Lewin (2)
Fernandes (5)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Digne (1)
Fernandes (48.6)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Mina (21.4)
20 (second most)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)5 (joint second fewest)
9Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)9
TottenhamvWest Brom
74%Win %12%
50%Clean sheet %13%
Son (6)AMost big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Pereira (3)
Aurier (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Phillips (2)
Son (36.7)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Pereira (32.1)
14Team big chances (last 6 GWs)12
11Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) 16 (third most)
WolvesvLeicester
31%Win %44%
28%Clean sheet %36%
Neves (3)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Barnes (3)
Neto (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Albrighton (3)
Neto (28.3)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Justin (35.0)
9Team big chances (last 6 GWs)13
10Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)6 (joint second fewest)
LiverpoolvMan City
35%Win %43%
22%Clean sheet %25%
Mane (4)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Gundogan (4)
Mane (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Gundogan (2)
Alexander-Arnold (34.2)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Gundogan (43.1)
13Team big chances (last 6 GWs)22 (most)
6 (joint second fewest)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)2 (fewest)
Sheffield UnitedvChelsea
15%Win %67%
15%Clean sheet %48%
Sharp (2)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Werner (3)
Fleck (1)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Mount (1)
Bogle (30.0)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Mendy (28.8)
5 (joint second fewest)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)8
9Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)14
LeedsvCrystal Palace
56%Win %24%
33%Clean sheet %17%
Bamford (3)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Zaha (2)
Bamford (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Eze (1)
Bamford (27.2)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Guaita (28.8)
6Team big chances (last 6 GWs)4 (fewest)
12Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)9

Braveheart’s GW22 review:

A strong gameweek for most as a lot of the highly-owned players performed very well, with a couple of notable exceptions from the red half of Merseyside (I’m looking at you, Captain Salah and Robertson). I returned 75 points for a small red arrow of 1k. I’m very pleased with the progress of my team and I look on course to win most of my cash mini-leagues. Returns from Fernandes (17), Justin (15), Antonio (8), Gundogan (8), Dias (6), Watkins (6) and Bamford (5) cushioned the pain of having Soucek on my bench, missing out on his nine points.

The main frustration in my team is the performance of my Liverpool assets, again. Robertson in particular has only returned once since GW16 (the clean sheet against Man United). For £7.4m, I expect more and as I go into GW23 with 2 free transfers, I will be using one of them to bring in a replacement for my compatriot. But, who is the best option to bring in (if any)?

Braveheart’s GW23 reveal:

I go into GW23 with 2 free transfers and £3.8m in the bank. I can bring in basically any player I want and my gut instinct was telling me to bring in Wan-Bissaka or Maguire of Man United ahead of a good run of three fixtures (Everton, West Brom and Newcastle). At the end of that run, there is a strong chance that United will have a double gameweek against Chelsea (a) and Palace (h). The other defender I’m considering is Cancelo (for the third week in a row I want to bring him in but there is, I think, a better opportunity elsewhere with a United asset).  

However, that was before the announcement of double gameweeks in GW24 and 25. This means I have four free transfers to maximise my cover from the doubling teams (Man City, Everton, Burnley and Fulham in DGW24 with Southampton and Leeds in DGW25). At the time of writing, I have 2 doublers for DGW24 (Dias and Gundogan) and 2 doublers for DGW25 (Bamford and Dallas). Of the teams that double next time around, Burnley has the best fixture on paper (v Brighton at home, though I don’t think that can be said to be easy with the form the seagulls are on). I’m also considering my captains for doubles. I like the look of Sterling or Gundogan in DGW24 and Bamford in DGW25. As City face a tricky fixture at Anfield, I’m inclined to delay getting my third City asset to next week, so this week I’m looking at Burnley or Fulham assets (as Everton have a tricky fixure at Old Trafford). The only FPL assets I like from Burnley and Fulham are Pope and Lookman. I’m not keen on bringing in Lookman this week as doing so would significantly weaken my midfield. By process of elimation, I will be using one free transfer this week to bring in Nick Pope for Sam Johnstone ahead of his favourable fixtures and upcoming double.

My squad heading into GW23 (if I make my planned transfer) is as follows:

  • Pope v Brighton (h)
  • Dias v Liverpool (a)
  • Justin v Wolves (a)
  • Dallas v Crystal Palace (h)
  • Salah v Man City (h)
  • Fernandes (captain) v Everton (h)
  • Son v West Brom (h)
  • Gundogan v Liverpool (a)
  • Bamford v Crystal Palace (h)
  • Watkins v Arsenal (h)
  • Antonio v Fulham (a)
  • My likely bench order:
  • McCarthy v Newcastle (a)
  • Soucek v Fulham (a)
  • Robertson v Man City (a)
  • Coufal v Fulham (a)

The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW23. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!

FPL obsessive | Scottish | Top 200 of all-time.

1 Comment
  1. You accidentally used SHU stats for AVL’s vs Arsenal

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