Braveheart’s Forward Look – GW20 – KDB replacements


This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week’s Premier League fixtures.

All player data in this article is from the last six gameweeks. All data is correct as of 25 January 2021.

The forward look – GW20:

Crystal PalacevWest Ham
32%Win %43%
27%Clean sheet %35%
Zaha (1)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Soucek (2)
Milivojevic (1)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Rice (1)
Guaita (26.9)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Cresswell (28.4)
2 (fewest)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)10
16 (third most)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)10
26%Win %53%
20%Clean sheet %33%
Wilson (2)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Bamford (4)
Ritchie (1)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Raphinha (2)
Darlow (31.4)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Bamford (26.7)
3 (second fewest)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)9
22 (most)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)15
32%Win %43%
25%Clean sheet %33%
Adams (3)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Lacazette (6)
Romeu (1)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Saka (2)
Walker-Peters (22.1)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Saka (32.8)
5Team big chances (last 6 GWs)13
8Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)6 (joint third fewest)
West BromvMan City
6%Win %84%
7%Clean sheet %58%
Pereira (2)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
De Bryune (5)
Pereira (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)De Bryune (4)
Pereira (25.4)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)De Bryune (40.7)
9Team big chances (last 6 GWs)23 (second most)
17 (second most)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)2 (fewest)
BurnleyvAston Villa
30%Win %47%
25%Clean sheet %33%
Wood (5)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Watkins (6)
Westwood (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Grealish (5)
Pope (28.5)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)El Ghazi (40.2)
9Team big chances (last 6 GWs)18 (third most)
8Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)9
62%Win %19%
42%Clean sheet %18%
Abraham (4)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Silva (3)
Pulisic (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Traore (1)
Pulisic (29.3)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Neves (30.1)
13Team big chances (last 6 GWs)7
15Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)12
49%Win %28%
38%Clean sheet %25%
Maupay (4)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Cavaleiro (3)
Trossard (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Anguissa (2)
Dunk (29.4)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Lookman (25.1)
10Team big chances (last 6 GWs)7
10Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)14
37%Win %39%
27%Clean sheet %28%
Calvert-Lewin (2)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Vardy (4)
Iwobi (1)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Albrighton (3)
Mina (18.3)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Justin (32.1)
3 (third fewest)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)13
6 (joint third fewest)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)7
Man UnitedvSheffield United
82%Win %8%
58%Clean sheet %10%
Fernandes (6)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
McGoldrick (3)
Fernandes (4)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Burke (1)
Fernandes (53.0)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Ramsdale (26.1)
24 (most)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)6
12Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)10
31%Win %47%
22%Clean sheet %31%
Son (7)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Firmino (5)
Kane (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Robertson (3)
Son (34.8)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Robertson (33.1)
14Team big chances (last 6 GWs)14
5 (second fewest)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)8

Braveheart’s DGW19 review:

I think my bench boost was a success, but it could have been better! In my last article, I mentioned I was considering a triple threat of moves (Kane to Antonio, Adams to Watkins and Maddison to KDB). In the end I couldn’t go into the double without KDB so I went for the three moves though, as it turns out, I wish I hadn’t as I would have been much better off with Maddison. Now I have the KDB injury to deal with in my team but more on that later. But I still think it was the right decision on paper, it just ended up not being so in practice. It is important to separate the decision from the outcome because sometimes the chips just don’t fall your way.

I’m still pleased with how my week went. I ended up with 115 points (-8) for a green arrow of 70k (31%) up to 150k. Dias (18), Coufal (12), Justin (14) and Antonio (18) were the heroes, supported by lesser returns from my more expensive players in Robertson, Fernandes and KDB. Captain Salah blanked though, so I’m grateful I persevered with my bench boost plan (my bench got 19 points) as otherwise I’d have triple captained Salah.

Braveheart’s GW20 reveal:

If we’ve learned anything from the last few weeks its that matches can be postponed and re-scheduled at the very last minute. There is a fixture backlog with Aston Villa, Burnley, Everton, Fulham, Leeds, Man City, Southampton and Tottenham all likely due doubles at some point as their matches are rescheduled. To help navigate any last minute rescheduling, I will continue to make my transfers as close to the deadline as possible and I will begin to try to prioritise bringing in (or keeping) players from these teams. The main issue in my team is KDB, who is now injured until the end of February at the latest. City still have great fixtures over the next three matches, so too do Everton and Fulham to a lesser extent. My current thinking is to bring in Gundogan for the injured KDB. Gundogan has the benefit of penalties in the Belgian’s absence (well, they won’t be giving pens to Sterling again any time soon). He also saves a significant amount of money enabling the return of Kane or Son in GW21. I considered a City defensive triple-up and would be very tempted by that strategy if I had two transfers. I don’t want to take a hit and I don’t want to miss a third of City’s great fixtures over the next three matches. So it looks like Gundogan is my man.

My squad heading into GW20 (if I make the planned transfer) is as follows:

  • McCarthy v Arsenal (h)
  • Robertson v Tottenahm (a)
  • Dias v West Brom (a)
  • Justin v Everton (a)
  • Salah v Tottenham (a)
  • Fernandes (captain) v Sheffield United (h)
  • Gundogan v West Brom (a)
  • Raphinha v Newcastle (a)
  • Bamford v Newcastle (a)
  • Watkins v Burnley (a)
  • Antonio v Crystal Palace (a)
  • My likely bench order:
  • McCarthy v Leicester (a)
  • Soucek v Crystal Palace (a)
  • Dallas v Newcastle (a)
  • Coufal v Crystal Palace (a)

For captaincy: I’m no going to overthink this week, Fernandes is the obvious choice at home to one of the worst teams in the league. Salah is off form and against Tottenham. If it weren’t for the KDB injury, I might have been considering Salah’s place in my team but for now he stays until I replace KDB and re-distribute the funds back into my team.

The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW20. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!

FPL obsessive | Scottish | Top 200 of all-time.

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