Braveheart’s Forward Look – GW21 – Change of plans

Introduction

This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week’s Premier League fixtures.

All player data in this article is from the last six gameweeks. All data is correct as of 29 January 2021.

The forward look – GW21:

EvertonvNewcastle
69%Win %14%
50%Clean sheet %15%
Iwobi (1)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Almiron (1)
Rodriguez (1)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Wilson (1)
Pickford (18.2)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Darlow (31.5)
2 (joint fewest)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)3
5 (joint second fewest)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)20 (most)
Crystal PalacevWolves
36%Win %38%
33%Clean sheet %36%
Zaha (2)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Neves (2)
Eze (1)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Traore (1)
Guaita (28.2)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Neves (29.1)
2 (joint fewest)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)7
16 (joint second most)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)10
Man CityvSheffield United
91%Win %3%
65%Clean sheet %7%
Gundogan (5)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
McGoldrick (3)
De Bryune (4)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Burke (1)
Cancelo (40.6)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Ramsdale (26.9)
24 (most)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)6
2 (fewest)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)7
West BromvFulham
31%Win %44%
27%Clean sheet %35%
Pereira (2)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Cavaleiro (3)
Pereira (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Lookman (1)
Pereira (28.3)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Areola (22.9)
10Team big chances (last 6 GWs)5
16 (joint second most)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)16 (joint second most)
ArsenalvMan United
36%Win %41%
25%Clean sheet %29%
Lacazette (8)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Fernandes (5)
Saka (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Fernandes (5)
Lacazette (37.5)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Fernandes (49.2)
16Team big chances (last 6 GWs)18 (third most)
6Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)10
SouthamptonvAston Villa
40%Win %37%
25%Clean sheet %25%
Adams (2)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Watkins (8)
Stephens (1)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Grealish (4)
Stephens (21.5)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Watkins (40.2)
5Team big chances (last 6 GWs)20 (second most)
11Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)10
ChelseavBurnley
74%Win %12%
50%Clean sheet %14%
Abraham (2)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Wood (3)
Pulisic (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Westwood (3)
Mendy (27.5)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Pope (30.1)
7Team big chances (last 6 GWs)8
16 (joint second most)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)12
LeicestervLeeds
55%Win %25%
31%Clean sheet %17%
Barnes (3)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Bamford (3)
Albrighton (3)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Raphinha (2)
Justin (33.3)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Bamford (23.9)
12Team big chances (last 6 GWs)6
6Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)9
West HamvLiverpool
23%Win %57%
17%Clean sheet %35%
Soucek (4)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Mane (5)
Antonio (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Mane (2)
Soucek (34.1)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Mane (39.4)
15Team big chances (last 6 GWs)13
5 (joint second fewest)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)7
BrightonvTottenham
29%Win %48%
23%Clean sheet %35%
Maupay (5)Most big chances  
(last 6 GWs)
Son (6)
Mac Allistair (2)Most big chances created (last 6 GWs)Kane (3)
Dunk (31.9)xFPL  (xG, xA and xCS combined)Son (32.6)
9Team big chances (last 6 GWs)13
9Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)8

Braveheart’s GW20 review:

Another captaincy blank (from Fernandes v Sheffield) but, thankfully, another green arrow as I move up to 125k. Unfourtnately I have 15 points from Soucek rotting on my bench, but I’m not too frustrated with that as the alternatives for him in my team (Raphinha and Gundogan) both hauled 13 and 14 points. Cancelo was the big hitter this week but fortunately I managed to offset his haul with Dias, Raphinha and Gundogan leading to my fifth green arrow in a row and my eleventh since Gameweek 7.

Braveheart’s GW21 reveal:

Heading in to Gameweek 21, I have £6.4m in the bank and 1 free transfer available. As mentioned in my last article, there is a fixture backlog with Aston Villa, Burnley, Everton, Fulham, Leeds, Man City, Southampton and Tottenham all likely due doubles at some point as their matches are rescheduled. To help navigate any last minute rescheduling, I will continue to make my transfers as close to the deadline as possible and I will begin to try to prioritise bringing in (or keeping) players from these teams. My main worries in my team are Robertson, Salah, Fernandes, Bamford. These players have all struggled in recent weeks failing to return the sort of points we have come to expect from them. I’m not minded to take out Salah or Fernandes at this time as I’d like to get my money in the bank on the field so it can start earning points. In my first draft of this article (before Spurs v Liverpool), I had spent this section talking up the likes of Son and Kane. However, with Kane now injured, my originally planned move of Bamford to the Spurs man is ruined.

The two transfers I’m pondering are Coufal to Cancelo, or Raphinha to Son. Cancelo has been on the brink of a haul for a number of weeks and finally returned the haul we expected in Gameweek 20. However, I don’t think bringing in Cancelo would be chasing points as I think he still represents excellent value for money as one of the most attacking defenders in the league and part of one of the stingiest defences. The only reason against bringing in Cancelo for me this week is that I have poor captaincy options. Son coming in would solve that connundrum (away to Brighton).

At the time of writing, I’m edging towards transferring Raphinha to Son and sticking the armband on the Tottenham man.

My squad heading into GW21 (if I make the planned transfer) is as follows:

  • McCarthy v Aston Villa (h)
  • Robertson v West Ham (a)
  • Dias v Sheffield United (h)
  • Justin v Leeds (h)
  • Salah v West Ham (a)
  • Fernandes v Arsenal (a)
  • Son (captain) v Brighton (a)
  • Gundogan v Sheffield United (h)
  • Bamford v Leicester (a)
  • Watkins v Southampton (a)
  • Antonio v Liverpool (h)
  • My likely bench order:
  • Johnstone v Fulham (h)
  • Soucek v Liverpool (h)
  • Dallas v Leicester (a)
  • Coufal v Liverpool (h)

The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW21. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!

FPL obsessive | Scottish | Top 200 of all-time.

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