Braveheart’s Forward Look – GW18


This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week’s Premier League fixtures.

All data is from the last six gameweeks and the information in this article is correct as of 11 January 2021.

The forward look – GW18:

Sheffield UnitedvNewcastle
41%Win %31%
37%Clean sheet %33%
McGoldrick (3)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Wilson (2)
Brewster (1)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Wilson (1)
McGoldrick (25.9)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Darlow (27.6)
4 (fewest)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)5 (joint second fewest)
15Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)16
BurnleyvMan United
17%Win %67%
14%Clean sheet %40%
Wood (6)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Fernandes (5)
Westwood (3)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Martial (4)
Wood (27.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Fernandes (42.1)
7Team big chances (last 6 GWs)22 (most)
9Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)11
40%Win %33%
35%Clean sheet %31%
Fabio Silva (2)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Calvert-Lewin (3)
Neto (1)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Iwobi (1)
Saiss (30.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Holgate (24.8)
6Team big chances (last 6 GWs)5 (joint second fewest)
11Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)7
Man CityvBrighton
86%Win %6%
57%Clean sheet %8%
De Bryune (4)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Maupay (3)
De Bryune (6)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Trossard (2)
De Bryune (36.4)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Dunk (33.3)
21 (second most)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)12
3 (fewest)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)10
74%Win %13%
46%Clean sheet %13%
Bergwijn (4)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Cavaleiro (4)
Son (3)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Robinson (2)
Son (28.5)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Lookman (22.8)
11Team big chances (last 6 GWs)10
5 (second fewest)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)7
ArsenalvCrystal Palace
65%Win %16%
46%Clean sheet %17%
Lacazette (6)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Benteke (2)
Willian (3)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Milivojevic (1)
Tierney (32.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Guaita (27.4)
14Team big chances (last 6 GWs)6
9Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)17 (second most)

Braveheart’s GW17 review:

I was pleased with how GW17 panned out. Another green arrow (my 8th in the last 11 GWs) has left my rank at 250k. While this isn’t as high as I would like it, I am pleased that it gives me a great basis from which to attack the upcoming blanks and doubles – starting this gameweek with my Free Hit in BGW18 (more on that below). In GW17, I ended up with 67 points (and progression in the Cup, but that is a bonus rather than a target). Strong performances from Captain Kane (12), Soucek (11), Bruno (10) and Maddison (10) were the reason for my good gameweek. It could have been much better too if it wasn’t for both Justin and Dias losing their clean sheets right at the end of their respective matches.

Braveheart’s GW18 (free hit) reveal:

At the time of writing, I plan on free-hitting in BGW18 and so I have carte blanche to attack the favourable fixtures from the forward look. Subject to any postponement news pre-deadline, I plan on maximising my team so far as possible with players from Man City, Man United, Arsenal and Tottenham. The reason I’ve said “at the time of writing” I plan on free-hitting is because I plan on leaving activating the chip until the last possible moment (maybe even within an hour of the 4:30pm deadline on Tuesday). This is because in the unlikely event that the season is postponed due to COVID-19, I will keep my chip for use in any future project restart. The fixtures are moving at great pace right now with Aston Villa v Tottenham getting postponed, and Tottenham v Fulham being moved to take its place.

COVID-19 has affected my free hit strategy because normally I would try to use as much of my cash on my playing 11 as possible, filling my bench with fodder. However, with the chance that there might be last-minute single-match postponements, I also want to make sure that I have a playing bench and a team spread widely across the available fixtures. This means bringing in (hopefully) cost-effective players from the likes of Newcastle, Wolves and Everton to compliment the big-free-hitters from Manchester and North London. 

Subject to any late COVID-19 news which would prevent me from activating my free hit chip, my for BGW18 is as follows:

  • Leno v Crystal Palace (h)
  • Dias v Brighton (h)
  • Stones v Brighton (h)
  • Dier v Fulham (h)
  • De Bruyne (captain) v Brighton (h)
  • Fernandes v Burnley (a)
  • Son v Fulham (h)
  • Saka v Crystal Palace (h)
  • Kane v Fulham (h)
  • Lacazette v Crystal Palace (h)
  • Wilson v Sheffield United (a)
  • Bench: Henderson (non-playing unfortunately), Burke, Clark and Mitchell.

My current draft doesn’t have as strong a bench as I would like, mainly due to my poor squad value. I’m going to consider dropping Lacazette and spreading the wealth a bit.

The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in BGW18. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!

FPL obsessive | Scottish | Top 200 of all-time.

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