Braveheart’s Forward Look – DGW19 – Bench boost or not?

Introduction

This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week’s Premier League fixtures.

All player data in this article is from the last six gameweeks, but team data is from GW12 to 17 (to avoid skewing data in favour of the teams who didn’t blank in GW18). All data is correct as of 14 January 2021.

The forward look – DGW19:

WolvesvWest Brom
67%Win %14%
55%Clean sheet %18%
Neves (2)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Grant (2)
Neves (1)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Pereira (2)
Neves (31.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Johnstone (24.0)
6Team big chances (last 6 GWs)6
11Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)17 (joint second fewest)
LeedsvBrighton
52%Win %29%
27%Clean sheet %18%
Bamford (5)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Maupay (3)
Raphina (2)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Trossard (2)
Bamford (31.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Dunk (29.6)
13Team big chances (last 6 GWs)12
19 (most)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)10
West HamvBurnley
55%Win %23%
41%Clean sheet %22%
Soucek (2)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Wood (5)
Lanzini (1)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Westwood (3)
Soucek (24.7)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Wood (26.0)
9Team big chances (last 6 GWs)7
12Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)9
FulhamvChelsea
14%Win %71%
13%Clean sheet %48%
Lookman (2)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Abraham (3)
Robinson (2)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Mount (2)
Lookman (17.9)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Pulisic (25.2)
10Team big chances (last 6 GWs)14
7Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)12
LeicestervSouthampton
55%Win %24%
35%Clean sheet %20%
Vardy (3)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Adams (3)
Vardy (1)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Romeu (2)
Justin (25.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Walker-Peters (23.0)
9Team big chances (last 6 GWs)10
9Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)6 (joint third fewest)
Aston VillavEverton
24%Win %56%
17%Clean sheet %33%
El Ghazi (5)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Calvert-Lewin (3)
Grealish (5)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Iwobi (1)
El Ghazi (43.1)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Holgate (24.5)
16 (third most)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)5 (joint second fewest)
6 (joint third fewest)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)7
Sheffield UnitedvTottenham
17%Win %65%
17%Clean sheet %46%
McGoldrick (3)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Son (7)
Burke (2)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Son (3)
McGoldrick (27.7)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Son (36.4)
4 (fewest)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)11
15Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)5 (second fewest)
LiverpoolvMan United
50%Win %28%
31%Clean sheet %20%
Firmino (4)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Martial (6)
Mane (2)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Martial (4)
Firmino (28.4)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Fernandes (43.0)
15Team big chances (last 6 GWs)22 (most)
14Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)11
Man CityvCrystal Palace
88%Win %5%
60%Clean sheet %7%
De Bryune (5)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Benteke (2)
De Bryune (5)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Townsend (1)
De Bryune (40.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Guaita (22.8)
21 (second most)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)6
3 (fewest)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)17 (joint second fewest)
ArsenalvNewcastle
71%Win %13%
20%Clean sheet %14%
Lacazette (5)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Wilson (3)
Saka (1)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Wilson (1)
Tierney (24.9)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Darlow (26.9)
14Team big chances (last 6 GWs)5 (joint second fewest)
9Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)16
SECOND FIXTURESSECOND FIXTURESSECOND FIXTURES
West HamvWest Brom
65%Win %16%
44%Clean sheet %17%
Soucek (2)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Grant (2)
Lanzini (1)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Pereira (2)
Soucek (24.7)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Johnstone (24.0)
9Team big chances (last 6 GWs)6
12Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)17 (joint second fewest)
LeicestervChelsea
33%Win %43%
23%Clean sheet %28%
Vardy (3)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Abraham (3)
Vardy (1)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Mount (2)
Justin (25.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Pulisic (25.2)
9Team big chances (last 6 GWs)14
9Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)12
FulhamvMan United
14%Win %70%
13%Clean sheet %44%
Lookman (2)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Martial (6)
Robinson (2)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Martial (4)
Lookman (17.9)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Fernandes (43.0)
10Team big chances (last 6 GWs)22 (most)
7Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)11
Man CityvAston Villa
80%Win %9%
54%Clean sheet %14%
De Bryune (5)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
El Ghazi (5)
De Bryune (5)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Grealish (5)
De Bryune (40.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)El Ghazi (43.1)
21 (second most)Team big chances (last 6 GWs)16 (third most)
3 (fewest)Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)6 (joint third fewest)
LiverpoolvBurnley
88%Win %5%
58%Clean sheet %7%
Firmino (4)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Wood (5)
Mane (2)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Westwood (3)
Firmino (28.4)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Wood (26.0)
15Team big chances (last 6 GWs)7
14Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs)9

Braveheart’s BGW18 review:

At the time of writing the jury is still out on my free hit team. I don’t regret using the chip as otherwise I would have had only four players playing (without taking significant hits). Captain KDB underperformed (why did he not hit that penalty) which is frustrating but he still did better than Salah who blanked so I’m trying to keep positive. Currently looking at a decent 50k or so green arrow with my Arsenal trio in Leno, Saka and Lacazette still to feature so fingers crossed for a big Arsenal performance.

Braveheart’s DGW19 (bench boost?) reveal:

How to make FPL laugh? Tell it your plans. I wanted to bench boost this week but last night the news was announced that Leeds v Southampton will be moved to a different date. The effect of this is that five players in my team (Dallas, Raphina, Bamford, McCarthy and Adams) all no longer have a double gameweek in 19. Holding the wildcard until the last possible moment to maximise the first set of blanks and doubles has not panned out as expected, though who could have anticipated the mutated strain of COVID that has burst the EPL team bubbles in this way as to cause fixture chaos? COVID was always going to be something for us to grapple with this season, but the timing for those of us who held the wildcard couldn’t really have been much worse.

Going into this week I have two options: bench boost or not to bench boost? I think the answer to this question will depend on whether you still have your free hit. I don’t as I used it in GW18. The reason the free hit is relevant is because the next big doubles in GW26. It it likely that those fixtures will mostly feature teams who will blank in GW29 (which clashes with the FA Cup Quarters). As a result, without my free hit, It will be incredibly difficult to be suitably covered for the doubles in GW26 (both in starting 11 and bench) AND field a decent team in GW29.My squad heading into GW19 (before any transfers) is as follows:

  • Johnstone v Wolves (a) and West Ham (a)
  • Robertson v Man United (h) and Burnley (h)
  • Dias v Crystal Palace (h) and Aston Villa (h)
  • Justin v  Southampton (h) and Chelsea (h)
  • Coufal v Burnley (h) and West Brom (h)
  • Salah v Man United (h) and Burnley (h)
  • Fernandes v Liverpool (a) and Fulham (h)
  • Maddison v Southampton (h) and Chelsea (h)
  • Soucek v Burnley (h) and West Brom (h)
  • Kane v Sheffield United (a)
  • Bamford v Brighton (h)
  • My likely bench:
  • McCarthy v Leicester (a)
  • Raphina v Brighton (h)
  • Dallas v Brighton (h)
  • Adams v Leicester (a)

Leeds v Brighton could still be a good fixture for my trio but I don’t fancy Southampton’s chances against Leicester. Also, Adams currently remains flagged as an injury doubt which is less than ideal. There is also talk of Aston Villa’s fixture against Newcastle being re-arranged for during the FA Cup Fourth Round weekend (and so would form part of GW19 giving Aston Villa two fixtures if their game against Everton is postponed as looks likely).

With the doubts around fixtures, my advice is the same as most of the FPL Community: wait to make transfers until the last moment so you have the most information available with which to make your decisions. My contemplated transfers are:

  • if Adams is confirmed out or remains a significant doubt – Adams to Antonio (but this would mean going without KDB for his great double against Crystal Palace and Aston Villa),
  • if a doubt remains over Maddison – Maddison and Kane to Antonio and De Bryune (-4),
  • if Aston Villa v Newcastle is re-arranged to take place during GW19 – then the Antonio moves may be to Watkins instead due to him not being made of glass or even combine both of the above moves and bring in Antonio, Watkins and De Bryune for -8.

Each of the above transfers are very much with a view to going ahead with my bench boost in DGW19 as I think, for my team without a free hit, it is the best opportunity without backing myself into a corner when DGW26 and BGW19 come around. For captaincy: if I have De Bryune, he will have the armband. Otherwise, it will be on Salah.

The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in DGW19. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!

FPL obsessive | Scottish | Top 200 of all-time.

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