Gameweek 13 Betting Tips

THE TOTTENHAM AND MOURINHO ERA BEGINS

Thankfully I did not press publish sooner, for the simple reason that I had a huge piece on who would be the next man to lose the sack race and that man turned out to be none other than Mauricio Pochettino.

If that news came as a shock to the football fraternity, then his replacement and the speed in which was announced by the North London outfit was even more so.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past 24 hours or so, you will be fully aware that Jose Mourinho has become the new Tottenham manager and boy are we in for some fun.

This is either going to be the appointment that finally sees Tottenham break through the Premier League glass ceiling (not this season mind) or this is the club where Jose finally loses his marbles once and for all.

A top four finish might be too much of a stretch for last season’s Champions League runners-up but we are still in November and there is a whole lot of football still be played.

Football that resumes as early as this weekend and with Jose Mourinho taking the reigns for a short trip across the capital, he will be looking to get the better of West Ham this Saturday lunchtime.

The fact that the Hammers are in terrible form right now, means that this is arguably the opposition that they can do without and this means more bad news for manager Manuel Pellegrini.

The East London outfit have not won any of their last six league matches and if that run extends to seven, do not be surprised to see the former Manchester City boss also given his marching orders.

Ultimately what does that mean in trying to back a winner this weekend? Although nothing is a given, especially in the Premier League, you would have to make Tottenham the favourites to win this one.

If you think Mourinho will get off to a perfect start at the London Stadium, then you can back his new charges to win at odds of 1.85. It might not be pretty, but it will certainly be pragmatic.

GOALS, GOALS, GOALS WE’RE LOOKING FOR A GOOD TIME

With the Premier League being so tight from fifth all the way down to sixteenth, trying to pick a winner or two in terms of accas or even singles for that matter is beginning to become something of a fruitless task.

Now we could all tip Liverpool or Manchester City to win and although most weeks that would come good, it’s not really going to make you rich either. Therefore, why don’t we look at this from a different point of view.

One that is purely goal based and after working on a bit of predictive modelling, I’m going to offer up the most likely over/under goal bets for this Premier League weekend.

THE UNDERS

By looking at this from a data driven approach, I’m going to use the goalscoring patterns of the season so far to try and predict the best bets of the weekend and although we love goals, sometimes we don’t want too many of them

With that in mind, I think Everton vs Norwich Under 2.5 at odds of 2.25 looks like being incredibly good value and not only that offers an edge over the bookmakers as they leaning towards this one being Over 2.5.

By the same token Sheffield United have conceded just eight goals this season and they play host to a Manchester United side who can misfire and with that in mind, backing Under 2.5 goals at Bramall Lane at odds of 1.62 is certainly worth considering.

Summary: Back Under 2.5 goals per game at Goodison Park and Bramall Lane

THE OVERS

The biggest game of the Premier League weekend also presents the best chance of Over 2.5 goals taking place and with Manchester City playing host to Chelsea this Saturday evening, it should make for a highly entertaining game.

While although this has the best chance of delivering the goals, it also subsequently has the smallest odds and therefore odds of 1.40 for Over 2.5 at the Etihad, should at least be added to any weekend accumulator you are planning.

Which means if you are looking for a game or two to fatten things up, then Crystal Palace vs Liverpool at Selhurst Park is another one for your consideration and at odds of 1.62, you would be silly to look past this one.

And if we are talking about teams at the top of the table, then Leicester should not be ruled out of the equation either and with them travelling to a Brighton side who are particularly strong at The AMEX, odds of 1.80 should not be overlooked.

Summary: Back Over 2.5 goals per game at the Etihad, Selhurst Park and The AMEX.

While if you are feeling really brave, then all five picks combined in an accumulator are at odds of 13.80 – although the Brighton vs Leicester might carry the most risk and with that in mind a four fold instead provides a safer yet still tempting price of 7.20.

Tottenham Fan. Football Writer, Podcaster and Statistician.

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