Fantasy MLS Tips For Daily Fantasy Football Betting: April 9
In this edition of his Fantasy MLS Tips article, Guy Sanchez picks out his top MLS fantasy hints and tricks for April 9.
The bookies have lost their way again, folks. Last week, the bookies laid out seven games for us – and only three of the favorites pulled off the win at home. But we had three draws and an away win to throw a wrench at the cogs. It’s just been up and down for the MLS this year. So if you’re one of those savants that’s really got this thing nailed down, I tip my hat to you. Here’s the thing though: eventually the bookies are going to start pegging these favorites at a clip better than 50%, and we just have to trust the math on that. So with that being said, here’s what the bookies have laid out for us this week for Saturday’s MLS matches:
We do have a clear favorite on the board here, but last week’s clear favorite was the game that lost outright. I honestly don’t think the bookies will swing and miss twice quite so badly. So with that in mind, let’s get right to the tips.
PLAY THE DALLAS STACK, FRONT TO BACK
We had a similar tip for San Jose last week, and San Jose let us down with their pitiful draw against sub par competition. So I feel pretty confident that Dallas will make San Jose wish they had used their previous home fixture to their advantage. Dallas are simply better than San Jose. How’s that for analysis for you? But doesn’t that kind of sum up what we already know?
OK. That’s lazy. So let’s go over why Dallas should win this match easily. Outside of the obvious, mainly that Dallas are in first place in the West, nearly every number is stacking up in Dallas’ favor. If you’re looking to invest in attack, Dallas have 31 shots on goal for the year. And if you’re thinking of investing defense, the counterpoint to that is that San Jose have only managed 16 shots on goal for the year. Dallas will be pelting the San Jose net and will be relatively free to not have to worry about a rather impotent San Jose threat going the other way.
As far as squad health goes, Dallas should be back again with key man Mauro Diaz who was reportedly held out of their last match as a precaution. But San Jose could be missing Clarence Goodson from the back and Cordell Cato from their midfield. All in all, Dallas are simply the better option here.
Max Urruti: $5500 DraftKings, $6.9 Mondogoal
Fabian Castillo: $6500 DraftKings, $9.1 Mondogoal
Mauro Diaz: $7400 DraftKings, $13.6 Mondogoal
CAN YOU TRUST KAMARA IN THIS ROAD FIXTURE? (PART II)
I bring this topic up again because Kei Kamara ($8900 DK, $12.2 Mondogoal) is still one of the most expensive forwards in the game – so casual fans looking to play a bit of fast money this weekend will naturally gravitate to some of the more expensive forwards because that means that they must be good. Sound familiar? The thing with Kamara is that he is good – he just hasn’t been that good this season yet.
The Crew have played four games this year, but they have had to play three of those matches on the road. And Kamara’s road stats have been absolutely awful during that stretch. He’s managed a total of four shots on goal in those three games, and he’s yet to score in a single one. But this might be one of those weeks to take a flier on Kamara.
His opponent in Montreal haven’t been exactly locking things down on the defensive end. Montreal are allowing two goals per game, and they really have to rely on simply outscoring their opponents to get a victory. The key stat for this game is that Montreal only have 9 corner kicks on the year (lowest in the league) – but Columbus have managed to generate 26 corner kicks.
And Columbus are outpacing Montreal on shots and shots on goal too, 57:44 and 21:17 respectively. So even though Columbus really haven’t turned those shots into game-winning goals yet, the numbers are there to indicate that Kamara really is due to start converting more of these chances for the Columbus side.
OTHER FORWARDS TO CONSIDER
Of course Sebastian Giovinco ($9700 DK, $14.4 Mondogoal) is going to top this list. But he’s been a bit of a blank these last couple of rounds (remember, Toronto have now played four of eight straight road fixtures – so that’s tough on anybody). His opponent, New England, have been pretty abysmal on the defensive end at times though.
New England are the only team in the playoff spots that have a negative goal differential, and without the benefit of a red card that always seems to go their way, they haven’t been able to generate much without an advantage. The key stat for this game is the fact that New England rank second in the league in fouls conceded with 73. So there’s a chance that Giovinco will generate some points by drawing fouls – and he’s also most likely to draw and score a PK on any given weekend.
One of the most overlooked forwards this weekend will probably be Joao Plata ($5600 DK, $10.4 Mondogoal) from RSL – because honestly, he wasn’t putting in this kind of work last year. Plata has three goals and three assists through four games, and he’s also managed to put in 18 crosses in that span as well. RSL are playing Colorado at home this weekend, and taking any team against a travelling Colorado squad is really never a horrible idea.
Finally, look at Dominic Oduro ($5800 DK, $6900 Mondogoal) from Montreal. Oduro started off hot at the start of the year with back to back goals and an assist – but he was later derailed by long road trips to Seattle and Dallas where he drew blanks. Expect the home atmosphere to help put him back on the right side of the score sheet this weekend.
RAPID FIRE: OTHER MOVES TO FILL OUT YOUR ROSTER
Despite being on a not-very-good New England squad, Chris Tierney ($5500 DK, $8.3 Mondogoal) has been a fantasy superstar. Tierney is really bolstered by being one of the preferred free kick takers on the squad – and he’s really pretty good at it too. And when he’s not taking free kicks? He’s getting up the field and providing service into the box; and he’s now up to 10.0 crosses per game. If you have the money, he’s a must have regardless of whether or not New England wins or loses.
Sacha Kljestan ($7200 DK, $10.9 Mondogoal) is now back at home, and I think that the Red Bulls play up to their favored status in this match. NYRB have started slow, but in his last home match, Kljestan scored a goal and an assist and provided 8 crosses en route to a monster score. I think he’s worth a second look this weekend.
The game to avoid, in my eyes, is probably DC v Vancouver. The bookies can’t make heads or tails of it – and neither can I. Unless you have a real strong sense one way or another, it’s probably best to load up on the other matches available. Remember that Vancouver will probably be without Pedro Morales, so there really isn’t much value in their roster without him. And DC have only scored 3 goals through 5 games…so where you go with that is anyone’s guess as well. Avoid this match and pick better players.
There you have it folks. Wherever you play, we here hope to see you in the GPP’s. Good luck.