GW34 Differential Picks
Here we are; the final few throws of the dice.
Everything to play for and one last set of Double Gameweeks.
In GW34 we see:
Brighton vs Cardiff as our only double.
Brighton have 3.1 xG predicted for this Gameweek while Cardiff have 2.4.
With all this in mind lets now have a look at some options flying under the radar a bit with some managers;
Fixtures: Huddersfield (Home), Man City (Away) + Brighton (Home), West Ham (Home)
Key Players: Son, Eriksen, Alli, Sissoko (pains me to write that last one)
xG: 2.29, 0.79 + 2.01, 1.84
Clean Sheet Probability: 73%, 12% + 55%, 45%.
Stealth Picks: Llorente (5.1m) and Lucas (6.7m)
Harry Kane is injured again, same ankle again, out for a long time… probably… again. So do we now look at the tall Spaniard to take his place as a budget options in our teams. What we do know is he scored 3 (and 1 own goal) last time Kane was out the team, but we also know that both Son and Lucas can play up top and this could be favoured in some games by the manager. It would make some sense that Llorente would be favoured against Huddersfield and Brighton leaving space for the faster, more dynamic players, to feature in the parts 2 and 3 of the Man City trilogy Spurs have at the moment. Due to rotation Llorente only has 2.0 points per game on average this season, but with his ownership at less than 1% and the fixtures against Huddersfield and Brighton (both at home) plum for him he could represent a good choice ahead of the DGW.
Lucas is an interesting one, he played a really good game in the defeat to Liverpool in place of Son. Holding the ball up well and making dynamic moves upfront. This could stick in the back of the managers mind and play a part in him featuring in the more difficult games over the next few weeks for Spurs. However, with Son needing to be wrapped in cotton wool now that Kane is out, it does seem that Lucas and Lamela will serve as the perfect rotation pair for the attacking line of Spurs, especially with what they should view as 5 winnable home games at their new stadium in the last 7 gameweeks of the season. Lucas is owned by slightly more than Llorente with 5.3% ownership and has scored a more impressive 3.8 points per game compared to the Spaniards 2.0, but this is due mainly to a good spell early in the season that saw him claim the Premier League Player of the Month award for August, could this form return when Spurs need it most?
Brighton and Hove Albion
Fixtures: Bournemouth (Home) + Cardiff (Home), Wolves (Away) + Tottenham (Away), Newcastle (Home)
Key Players: Duffy, Murray, Gross (Injured).
xG: 3.1, 1.7, 1.03
Clean Sheet Probabilities: 39% + 45%, 17% + 9%, 36%
Stealth Picks: Gross (6.7m) and Knockeart (5.2m)
The curious case of Pascal Gross. This season has somewhat been a write-off for last years player of the year due to injury. But after making the switch from the Bundesliga to the Premier League, Gross had a stellar season last year posting impressive numbers; 7 goals, 8 assists and 24 bonus points helped see him with a fantastic 164 points. This season however he has only completed 90 minutes 5 times, but when he was fit he played 60 minutes or more in 11 consecutive games. This run of games and a few at the start of the season helped see Gross settle with a 3.1 points per match average, but we all know this can be closer to the 4.9 points per match average he had last season. His return from injury has been teased by manager Chris Hughton, but if he is indeed fit for Brighton’s double double, as a penalty taker, set piece taker, and general attacking fulcrum – he could be quite the differential for managers! Knockeart is your fall back option in the same mould as Gross (that of an attacking asset for Brighton), at 5.2m he is extremely cheap and with the injury worries over March and Gross he could see significant time on pitch.
Brighton attacking assets are a massive risk, their defence is, in theory a safer option with a combination of Duffy, Dunk and Ryan featuring in most Wildcard teams as we stand.
Until Next Time…
Make Good Choices!
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