Under the Radar – Stealth Picks for FPL Gameweek 29

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#GW29 – Under the Radar – Eden Hazard Differential Special

Our best pick for Gw29 Differential

Eden Hazard

10.8m
Chelsea FC
Fulham (a), Wolves (h), Everton (a)
24.4% TSB
6.4 Points per game

Now here me out on this one!

For those who don’t have the full set of chips ahead, or are looking at a FH in DGW32 Hazard (like Liverpool) will play every gameweek.

However (unlike Liverpool) it is looking increasingly likely, assuming Chelsea progress as expected in the Europa League this side of the International Break, that Chelsea will also have a double gameweek in 32; With Cardiff and Brighton and Hove Albion likely opponents.

This gives Chelsea this potential run of games;

GW29 – Fulham (A)
GW30 – Wolves (H)
GW31 – Everton (A)
GW32 – Cardiff (A) & Brighton (H)
GW33 – West Ham (H)

Chelsea, in micro, are swinging wildly from success to disaster this season (much like how they do as a club in macro – with their merry-go-round of managers).

It is all too easy to discount them as a viable option moving forward but with the best fixture run in the game arguably (due to number of games and general standard of opposition) they sit in that handy differential goldilocks zone.

Winning 2-0 against cross city rivals Spurs in GW28 helps turn FPL managers towards their assets in earnest. While their defence shined in the BPS returns and bit part FPL players contributed to goals, Hazard went off at the 60th minute seemingly suffering from a build up of fatigue from lots of recent matches including the Cup Final going to extra time. However, this rest could be a blessing to potential owners.

The statistic standing against Hazard is that 98 of his 166 points this season have come in just 7 games.

When he scores he scores big, but when he doesn’t he scrabbles around for points. However he is probably one of the only high prices asset guaranteed minutes in the league, due not only to his standing in the squad but also that Chelsea are no longer in the FA Cup and are playing rotation players against lesser quality opponents in the Europa League.

As attacking assets go, we are still unsure how much consistency Higuain is going to get, specifically when it comes to that crucial Cardiff, Brighton, West Ham week so Hazard really remains as the only bankable player to fit this schedule.

So let’s delve into some of the underlying stats for Hazard.

What we see is a fairly unimpressive set of statistics, with 1.4xG over 10 Gameweeks, 6 shots on goal across the same period and only 5 chances created for his teammates. These are not good statistics by any means, so what we are banking on with Hazard is his historic ability to hit patches of form.

He has burned a lot of FPL Managers this season, this 5 gameweek – no blank – 1 double – stretch is potentially his last chance for a good investment this season.
29 – Fulham (a)

So looking at the fixtures Chelsea play in this run 1 by 1. They start with a game against Fulham, who are adrift in 19th in the league, are Chelsea’s best fixture in the next run.

They have given up an xG every 52nd minute in the league over the last 10 gameweeks, this is the worst of any team in the league. In this space they have given up the 3rd highest amount of big chances with 26 (or 2.6 a game on average).

In the last matchup Chelsea won 2-0 and Hazard contributed 1 assist.

Asset Rating – 9/10

30 – Wolves (H)

Two Games ago, this would’ve been on paper a hard game for Chelsea, and of course it still is. However, things have changed in the last few days with Wolves narrowly avoiding defeat to a bedraggled, injury ravaged Bournemouth followed by a loss to bottom of the league Huddersfield.

Meanwhile Chelsea took a rampant Manchester City to penalties in a goalless cup final and followed it up with an impressive 2-0 home win against rivals Totenham Hotspur.

Some of the key stats at play over the last 10 gameweeks are that Wolves have only kept 1 clean sheet in the last 10 matches and have conceded 7 big errors leading to chances for the opposition in that time, the 2nd worst in the league.

The reverse fixture gave up an impressive 2-1 home victory for Wolves, however Hazard again contributed 1 assist.

Asset Rating – 7/10

31 – Everton (A)

Everton are struggling to find consistent form, although a 3-0 win against Cardiff in GW28 will do wonders for their confidence. With center back pairings being inconsistent to date, with Zouma, Jagielka, Keane and Mina all failing to really instil confidence for FPL managers.

However the stats over this game bring Everton’s decline into sharp focus, even with a crushing 3-0 victory over Cardiff, it brought them level with the Welsh side for 23 big chances conceded in 10 matches (2.3 a game), which is the joint 5th worst in the league. Everton have also made 6 errors in the last 10 matches which have led to chances for the opposition (1 short of Wolves’ 7) and have only recorded 3 clean sheets in this time.

In the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge the teams played out a lacklustre 0-0 draw.

Asset Rating – 6/10

DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 32 – Cardiff (a) and Brighton (H)

Cardiff (a)

Cardiff are looking awful at the moment, with consolation goals their only achievement of late they have been on the end of some big scores.

Astonishingly they have given up a league high 50 chances just from the center of the pitch in the last 10 games, that is a 5 a game. This is far beyond the average in the league with the other 19 teams only averaging 30 chances from the same area. On top of this Cardiff have 22 goals and conceded 26 big chances.

Eden Hazard recorded a hat-trick in Chelsea’s 4-1 victory in September, when Sarri-ball was still vogue.

Asset Rating – 9/10

Brighton (H)

A harder game in theory, but Brighton haven’t been as good as they would’ve hoped on the road this season. But their defensive frailties since Matt Ryan left for the Asia Cup have not been fixed by the return of the Australian. Losing 2-1 to Leicester the other night will do nothing to build confidence as Leicester themselves were coming off a run so bad it saw them part company with their manager.

Brighton have given up 17 goals in 10 games and only kept 2 clean sheets in this time.

In their previous meeting this season, at the American Express Community Stadium Chelsea edged out a nervy affair 2-1 with Eden Hazard scoring in the process.

Asset Rating – 8/10

33 – West Ham (H)

West Ham put in a notably good defensive showing against a leggy Manchester City side, but still the London club do not have the best record defensively.

They have given up 30 big chances in 10 gameweeks (equal with Huddersfield), and only kept 1 clean sheet in this time. They have also conceded 16 goals across this span, so Chelsea should have a good shot at pushing that 1.6 goals conceded a game average up to 2 or 3 in their particular match up.

In the previous game West Ham put up an impressive fight (as often they do against the big teams) at home to give a 0-0 scoreline and put the first dent in Sarri’s, at that time, buoyant new team.

Asset Rating – 7/10

So in total I give Hazard 46/60 rating in a period where most players will be seeing 2 blanks and 1 double, 1 blank, no blanks or 1 double. Most players therefore will have ratings ranging between being scored out of 30 – 50. Hazard has the distinct advantage of having his rated out of 60 due purely to the amount of matches he will play.

Now of course the Premier League could throw us some curve balls, but after extensive research from excellent members of the community such as Ben Crellin we see Chelsea’s double chances being placed in 32 placed quite highly due in part to their opponent Brighton having to squeeze in 3 double gameweeks before the end of the season and the league preferring to pencil in the Chelsea and Tottenham matches outside of UCL and EL gamedays so as not to incur a fine from UEFA. This puts Chelsea neatly into GW32 and Spurs neatly into 35, with Spurs expected to play Palace in 32 pending the outcome of the FA Cup time the Eagles are in.

Hazard is the troll-iest of trolls. Good luck.

Until Next Time…

Make Good Choices!

Jared

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By | 2019-02-28T14:43:18+00:00 February 28th, 2019|Analysis|0 Comments

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