Under the Radar – Stealth Picks for FPL Gameweek 16

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GW16 Differential Picks

Robert Snodgrass

5.3m
West Ham
Next 3: Crystal Palace, Fulham, Watford
TSB: 0.3%

With Yarmolenko out for the season and Diangana failing to secure a steady place in the XI, Robert Snodgrass has pushed himself to the front of the queue this week after supplying 2 assists and 2 bonus points in his recent match and an assist in the game before.

Pellegrini has come out and spoken highly of the Scottish International this week and his positioning and game time have improved in the last few weeks. He covered in central midfield in November for the Hammers showing his flexibility for the festive run should he be needed to cover a range of positions. However, now he is playing further up the pitch but it isn’t necessarily his positioning that see’s him as a tip this week.

What secures his recommendation is his set piece delivery. Seemingly now on all of West Ham’s dangerous set plays (excluding Mark Noble’s penalty duties) with the return of Andy Carrol and the departure through injury of Marko Arnautovic, West Ham could shift their danger from working centrally through the Austrian to moving the ball out wide to deliver balls for the Carrol. Also of note is that over the last 4 Premier League games, Robert Snodgrass is the 3 rd highest in the xA (expected assist charts) with a figure of 1.38 xA per 90. Either way the fixtures are still gorgeous for West Ham and Snodgrass has proved himself an adept December pick, is he the perfect makeweight for your team?

Set pieces, Injuries, Andy Carrol

Marcus Rashford

6.7m
Manchester United
Next 3: Fulham, Liverpool, Cardiff
TSB: 5.0%

Martial and Sanchez are now injured, and Lukaku is out of form. United have problems mounting allover the field, but they also have some fantastic fixtures over the festive period. After the run of three shown above United round of the Christmas fixtures with successive home games against Huddersfield and Bournemouth before a trip to St. James Park and Benitez’ Newcastle. Rashford’s underlying stats don’t jump off the page, but United will have to compete for goals heading into the January markets as many players and even the manager are at risk of losing their place. However, Rashford has contributed 7 chances created and 4 attempts on goal in the last 4 gameweeks and with the run of fixtures ahead he could be a differential for those managers looking to jump off.

Salomon Rondon

5.7m
Newcastle United
Next 3: Wolves, Huddersfield, Fulham
TSB: 1.6%

3 goals in 4 games is a headline statistic, but what many managers may not know is his underlying stats being so high. 18 goal attempts in 4 games is the highest in the league with Kane and Hazard lagging behind with 14 a piece in second place. Rondon has a 60% goal involvement for the magpies while on the pitch and has the second highest xG in the league in the last 4, behind only Aubameyang, Rondon’s xG is at a whopping 2.86. Newcastle have some great fixtures and have just started finding some form, survival and thriving in the league depends greatly on how they combat the next run of fixtures.

Sead Kolasinac

4.9m
Arsenal
Next 3: Huddersfield, Southampton, Burnley
TSB: 0.8%

First thing first…

We will be rotated, their will be rotation in most teams and excluding maybe Harry Kane most players will see some minutes on the bench in the next few weeks and Kolasinac is no exception. However, Arsenal have a succession of good fixtures and although their defence has been porous this season with the Gunners shockingly at the top of the ‘Errors leading to a big chance’ with 11 this season, it is not necessarily in defence where Kolasinac provides his best encouragement. Kolasinac over the last 4 games has provided the leagues highest xA, with 1.62 (David Silva for comparison is at 0.55).

Rob Holding got what could be quite a serious injury in Arsenal’s draw to Manchester United in gameweek 15 so if Arsenal wish to keep up the 3 at the back formation at any point over Christmas they would either need to look to the returning Koscielny or Monreal, both coming back from injuries. Although the Spaniard has been back in training this week, he may now need to be drafted in to cover at LCB as part of a three and allow Kolasinac to continue to provide threat down the left wing as Emery adds this formation to his bow as he experiments with different ways to get the best out of in-form Lacazette and Aubameyang and how to get them both in the same line up.

Monreal is a natural Left Back rotation risk for Kolasinac but Kola owners will remember his proclivity for points from the start of last season with bonus points and assists in much the same way as Mendy burst onto the scene at the start of this season – is he a risk worth taking?

Until Next Time…

Make Good Choices!

Jared

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By | 2018-12-06T15:45:04+00:00 December 6th, 2018|Analysis|0 Comments

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