Oh great, another Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 33 Captain Tips article. Let me guess, Lukaku, Sanchez, Kane, Aguero, Hazard, Ibrahimovic and Vardy are all good options because they’ve all scored at some point during the last ten weeks.
Before you click away from this article with the assumption that it’s just another generic FPL captain tips article, I’d like to clarify from the start that this article won’t actually be recommending anyone, but will instead statistically compare how this week’s most popular captaincy options and their opposing teams have fared at home and away this season.
MOBILE READERS: If you’re reading this article on your mobile, remember to scroll across the tables to view all columns.
The Home & Away Form of Gameweek 33’s Popular Captain Options
The following table has isolated the performances of each player depending on where their Gameweek 33 fixture takes place. For example, the statistics shown for Romelu Lukaku are just from his HOME matches this season, whilst Sanchez’s are from just AWAY matches this season.
Statistics from our Home & Away Form table.
Whilst the above table is useful for looking at individual metrics, it doesn’t shed much light on the extent to which each player’s performance has differed between home and away fixtures.
When looking at Romelu Lukaku, the fact that he’s scored 15 goals at home provides a good enough reason to captain him in Gameweek 33, regardless of his away performance. Meanwhile, Jamie Vardy’s solitary one goal away from King Power raises some concerns.
How Player Performances Have Differed Between Home and Away Fixtures
The table below helps to better illustrate how performances have differed between home and away fixtures. If you are somebody who factors in locational performance to their game (show me an FPL manager who doesn’t), then this is the table for you.
Harry Kane has the most favoured match-up with 68.62% of his points coming at White Hart Lane. The striker has scored 73.68% of his goals, and subsequently received 78.26% of his bonus points, on home soil too. Sergio Aguero, on the other hand, has flourished in away matches with 66.66% of his points coming on his travels.
Whilst Romelu Lukaku (62.81%) and Alexis Sanchez (57.14%) have shown slight preference to home and away matches respectively, it’s important to remember that they fall lower in the above table due to consistent performances both home and away.
The Best Captain Picks For Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 33
Whilst Harry Kane has less points at home than Romelu Lukaku, it’s important to note that he’s also played less minutes due to injury. Therefore, comparing the above tables helps provide a more rounded view on who to captain.
At this stage, I’d like to eliminate Ibrahimovic, Hazard & Vardy as stonewall captaincy options. I would like to point out that I still think Ibrahimovic & Hazard are good differential options, based on the fact it’s a big match and both players are in varied degrees of good form.
However, for the sake of deciphering the cryptic code of captaincies, I intend to progress with the famous four: Lukaku, Kane, Aguero & Sanchez.
Who Has The Easiest Fixture In Gameweek 33?
The table below shows goals conceded (all season), the percentage of which have been conceded home/away (dependent on GW33 fixture) followed by goals conceded and clean sheets from the last 7 (both home & away).
Statistics from our Defensive Form table.
|Team||GC||H/A %||GC L7||CS L7|
Burnley have managed to record three clean sheets from their last 7, which is the second highest amount behind Palace (4). However, these clean sheets have come against Sunderland, Stoke & Middlesbrough, dotted between matches where they’ve conceded to the likes of Tottenham and Liverpool.
The fact that Burnley have conceded 68.18% of their goals away from home really plays into the hands of Lukaku, who has favoured scoring at Goodison.
Bournemouth would have a similar percentage to Burnley had they managed to show similar defensive consistency at home. However, due to conceding 59 goals in total this season – spread almost equally (45/55%) between home/away – they only prove slightly more vulnerable on the road.
Middlesbrough have the same recent form as Bournemouth, but on a season-long scale they’ve conceded 22 less and proved to be more consistent at home.
If you read Fantasy Football Magazine, you’ll have seen my study on ‘teams with something left to play for’. With Middlesbrough fighting relegation, and Arsenal in a slump of form, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boro get something out of this game.
Aguero doesn’t look quite as good of an option when looking at Southampton’s record. The Saints have conceded less than 1 goal per game on average from their last 7, and have proved stronger at St Mary’s with 40.54% of their overall goals conceded coming on home soil.
Should I captain Lukaku or Kane in FPL Gameweek 33?
Well isn’t that just the million dollar question. Personally, my armband is on Romelu Lukaku because he’s nailed on for 90 minutes and fresh from scoring 2 last time out.
If I had a crystal ball that could show me if Harry Kane is starting, then I’d be tempted to opt for him. He is returning from injury though, to a team that managed 4 without him last week.
I hope you enjoyed the article. I’d love to chat with some of my readers below, whether that’s about topics covered in this article or just general FPL musings. Please leave a comment.