Gameweek 33 Captain Tips: Analysing Home & Away Form

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Oh great, another Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 33 Captain Tips article. Let me guess, Lukaku, Sanchez, Kane, Aguero, Hazard, Ibrahimovic and Vardy are all good options because they’ve all scored at some point during the last ten weeks.

Before you click away from this article with the assumption that it’s just another generic FPL captain tips article, I’d like to clarify from the start that this article won’t actually be recommending anyone, but will instead statistically compare how this week’s most popular captaincy options and their opposing teams have fared at home and away this season.

MOBILE READERS: If you’re reading this article on your mobile, remember to scroll across the tables to view all columns.

The Home & Away Form of Gameweek 33’s Popular Captain Options

The following table has isolated the performances of each player depending on where their Gameweek 33 fixture takes place. For example, the statistics shown for Romelu Lukaku are just from his HOME matches this season, whilst Sanchez’s are from just AWAY matches this season.

Statistics from our Home & Away Form table.

Player VS G A B PTS
Lukaku BUR (H) 15 5 22 125
Sanchez MID (A) 12 5 13 116
Kane BOU (H) 14 2 18 105
Aguero SOT (A) 11 2 16 90
Hazard MUN (A) 4 4 12 76
Ibrahimovic CHE (H) 7 4 11 75
Vardy CPL (A) 1 3 0 35

Whilst the above table is useful for looking at individual metrics, it doesn’t shed much light on the extent to which each player’s performance has differed between home and away fixtures.

When looking at Romelu Lukaku, the fact that he’s scored 15 goals at home provides a good enough reason to captain him in Gameweek 33, regardless of his away performance. Meanwhile, Jamie Vardy’s solitary one goal away from King Power raises some concerns.

How Player Performances Have Differed Between Home and Away Fixtures

The table below helps to better illustrate how performances have differed between home and away fixtures. If you are somebody who factors in locational performance to their game (show me an FPL manager who doesn’t), then this is the table for you.

Player VS G A B PTS
Kane BOU (H) 74% 50% 78% 69%
Aguero SOU (A) 69% 100% 64% 67%
Lukaku BUR (H) 65% 83% 71% 63%
Sanchez MID (A) 67% 50% 57% 57%
Ibrahimovic CHE (H) 41% 57% 39% 46%
Hazard MUN (A) 29% 50% 41% 40%
Vardy CPL (A) 11% 60% 0% 32%

Harry Kane has the most favoured match-up with 68.62% of his points coming at White Hart Lane. The striker has scored 73.68% of his goals, and subsequently received 78.26% of his bonus points, on home soil too. Sergio Aguero, on the other hand, has flourished in away matches with 66.66% of his points coming on his travels.

Whilst Romelu Lukaku (62.81%) and Alexis Sanchez (57.14%) have shown slight preference to home and away matches respectively, it’s important to remember that they fall lower in the above table due to consistent performances both home and away.

The Best Captain Picks For Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 33

Whilst Harry Kane has less points at home than Romelu Lukaku, it’s important to note that he’s also played less minutes due to injury. Therefore, comparing the above tables helps provide a more rounded view on who to captain.

Player VS PTS H/A %
Lukaku BUR (H) 125 63%
Kane BOU (H) 105 69%
Aguero SOT (A) 90 67%
Sanchez MID (A) 116 57%
Ibrahimovic CHE (H) 75 46%
Hazard MUN (A) 76 40%
Vardy CPL (A) 35 32%

At this stage, I’d like to eliminate Ibrahimovic, Hazard & Vardy as stonewall captaincy options. I would like to point out that I still think Ibrahimovic & Hazard are good differential options, based on the fact it’s a big match and both players are in varied degrees of good form.

However, for the sake of deciphering the cryptic code of captaincies, I intend to progress with the famous four: Lukaku, Kane, Aguero & Sanchez.

Who Has The Easiest Fixture In Gameweek 33?

The table below shows goals conceded (all season), the percentage of which have been conceded home/away (dependent on GW33 fixture) followed by goals conceded and clean sheets from the last 7 (both home & away).

Statistics from our Defensive Form table.

Team GC H/A % GC L7 CS L7
BUR (A) 44 68% 8 3
BOU (A) 59 56% 10 2
MID (H) 37 46% 10 2
SOT (H) 37 41% 6 2

Burnley have managed to record three clean sheets from their last 7, which is the second highest amount behind Palace (4). However, these clean sheets have come against Sunderland, Stoke & Middlesbrough, dotted between matches where they’ve conceded to the likes of Tottenham and Liverpool.

The fact that Burnley have conceded 68.18% of their goals away from home really plays into the hands of Lukaku, who has favoured scoring at Goodison.

Bournemouth would have a similar percentage to Burnley had they managed to show similar defensive consistency at home. However, due to conceding 59 goals in total this season – spread almost equally (45/55%) between home/away – they only prove slightly more vulnerable on the road.

Middlesbrough have the same recent form as Bournemouth, but on a season-long scale they’ve conceded 22 less and proved to be more consistent at home.

If you read Fantasy Football Magazine, you’ll have seen my study on ‘teams with something left to play for’. With Middlesbrough fighting relegation, and Arsenal in a slump of form, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boro get something out of this game.

Aguero doesn’t look quite as good of an option when looking at Southampton’s record. The Saints have conceded less than 1 goal per game on average from their last 7, and have proved stronger at St Mary’s with 40.54% of their overall goals conceded coming on home soil.

Should I captain Lukaku or Kane in FPL Gameweek 33?

Well isn’t that just the million dollar question. Personally, my armband is on Romelu Lukaku because he’s nailed on for 90 minutes and fresh from scoring 2 last time out.

If I had a crystal ball that could show me if Harry Kane is starting, then I’d be tempted to opt for him. He is returning from injury though, to a team that managed 4 without him last week.

I hope you enjoyed the article. I’d love to chat with some of my readers below, whether that’s about topics covered in this article or just general FPL musings. Please leave a comment.

Check out our Fantasy Premier League Tips page for more in-depth articles including Why You Should Keep Alexis Sanchez on Fantasy Premier League. We also have a range of newly added, free to use Fantasy Premier League Statistics if you need some inspiration ahead of the weekend.
By | 2017-04-12T20:26:00+00:00 April 12th, 2017|Statistics|8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Clarke Hutchison April 12, 2017 at 4:30 pm

    A lot to consider ahead of GW33! As someone who’s keeping hold of Alexis Sanchez, I’m seriously considering captaining him as a differential. I’ve got ground to make up in mini-leagues and think he’s got a decent chance of a haul vs. a Middlesbrough side who need to search for goals. Also the fact he’s performed great away from home as you covered.

    • jamieFPL April 12, 2017 at 5:36 pm

      It’s weird that the highest scorer in the game is somewhat cast as a differential ahead of a fixture to Middlesbrough… who’d of thought it?! I think that’s a decent bet mate, if he starts up top then you’d fancy him to be amongst the goals. It’s almost written in the script with the amount of people transferring him out!

  2. PMJ1981 April 12, 2017 at 7:54 pm

    Personally, I think this is a great week to captain Kane as opposed to Lukaku. He wont be as highly owned as no doubt he will be in another few weeks, so if you are looking to make inroads in the rankings then I see this as a huge opportunity.

    • jamieFPL April 12, 2017 at 8:27 pm

      Thanks for the comment. I definitely agree, do you think he’ll get a 90 following his injury and Son’s recent performances?

      • PMJ1981 April 13, 2017 at 8:42 am

        May not get 90 but I think they’ll be looking to get him plenty of minutes to get him up to match speed ready for the cup game against Chelsea. If Poch sticks with the 4-2-3-1 from the last game then I can see both playing anyway, with Kane starting ahead of Janssen.

        However, there’s a possibly he will shift it back to 3-5-2 to counter Bournemouth playing 2 up front, which then immediately puts Son just as at risk for pitch time. To confuse things further, I could even see one of Eriksen or Alli getting a rest to be honest, as both have been playing almost every minute for quite a number of weeks now.

        Will wait for the Press conference today but then Kane will probabaly be coming in for me and taking the armband. I’ll have Lukaku as my other striker to mitigate against his captainers, so with me sitting at around 95K OR, I feel it’s worth taking the gamble.

        • jamieFPL April 13, 2017 at 9:55 am

          Thanks for sharing your insight mate. I’m tempted to join you on captaining Kane, would you mind updating me on the news from the presser? Good luck with your ascent on the rankings!

          • PMJ1981 April 13, 2017 at 7:41 pm

            News from the presser if you haven’t already seen it
            MP regarding Kane: “he is very fresh in his body and his mind and he is very hungry to score again” – sounds promising in terms of a start
            MP regarding Rose: “Maybe he will start next week, doing things on the pitch. We hope that will be possible.” – Semi final might be too early for a return so Davies should be safe for another week or two
            Wanyama: has trained all week and is available again for selection after a back injury – Could facilitate a switch back to 3-5-2 but no suggestion by MP of team setup or who is likely to play.

            Not really anything to help either way so I will be sticking to my original plan – Kane in this week (C) , Zlatan next week for the DGW. Good luck with whatever you decide and thanks for the articles. Been a reader for a while (just not posted comments) and appreciate many of the tips.

  3. Steven Riley April 14, 2017 at 5:22 pm

    This just looks the kind of fixture I can see Kane and Spurs thriving in. Burnley may dig in with Everton being in such good form.

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