Gameweek 21 Clean Sheet Probability & Expected Goals

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Gameweek 21 Clean Sheet Probability & Expected Goals.

The purpose of this article is to help you identify the Premier League teams with the best clean sheet and goal scoring potential for  Gameweek 21. 

Both of these factors are essential for FPL (or any fantasy football game) as your fortunes and point totals are hugely dependent on goals scored and clean sheets secured.

All data is provided by our partners: All Fantasy Tips.

How to use these numbers

These numbers are based on a statistical model where each team has a unique rating for scoring and conceding goals. This rating is based on various factors from the previous 10-50 Premier League matches, and it is updated on regular basis.

Making use of these numbers can give you a huge advantage in many ways:

Gain an edge by identifying the favourites and most likely scorers, compare the clean sheet potential of lower-tier clubs such as West Brom, Bournemouth and Stoke or solidify your initial gut picks with statistical findings.

Gameweek 21 Tips:

Clean sheets: Tottenham 54%, Watford 43%, Chelsea 41%
Expected goals: Arsenal 2.49, Tottenham 1.94, West Ham 1.94

Watford are a real surprise amongst the top clean sheet candidates this week! The Hornets are not exactly known for their tight defense, but they have a very favorable home fixture against Middlesbrough.

The visitors have strengthened their offence with the signing of Rudy Gestede from Aston Villa earlier this week, but he shouldn’t cause them any headaches just yet.

One reason for Watford’s appearance in this list, is the fact there aren’t many likely clean sheet candidates from the top teams – just the one this round, and that is Tottenham. Spurs meet West Brom at White Hart Lane and their full-backs Kyle Walker and Danny Rose should be top defensive picks for GW21 as they are practically fielded as wingers.

Unsurprisingly, Chelsea are also one of the top candidates and the downfall of Leicester shows no clear signs of clearing up. One thing is obvious: The Foxes are not scoring goals and Chelsea have been the most reliable source for clean sheets all season.

Tottenham are also one of the most likely teams to score goals this round. West Brom have not been the low-scoring and tight-defending team of the past they have been known for and Spurs also have one of the most instinctive goal-scorers in their ranks – Dele Alli.

The young midfielder has scored seven goals in his previous four Premier League matches and thousands of FPL managers from around the globe are transfering him in as we speak. However, if you don’t want to jump onto the Alli-train, which in my opinion has already left with you stranded on the sidewalk, Alexis Sanchez is a man who can be trusted.

The Gunners travel to face a horrible Swansea defence, who have the highest goal conceded expectancy this round. The Swans have conceded at least three goals in six of their previous eight matches and Arsenal have scored at least three in their last five games in all competitions.

Alexis Sanchez is arguably the ‘safe’ captaincy option in Gameweek 21, however, if you’re looking for a differential from then Olivier Giroud is in great shape. See all interesting Arsenal player stats from here.

The past performance:

Here you can see how the top candidates of this algorithm have performed in the previous weeks. As you can see, the numbers can predict the outcomes pretty nicely!

Clean Sheet Accuracy (Top Candidates): 57%
Goals Scored Per Match (Top Candidates): 2.43

Gameweek 18

By | 2017-04-05T22:48:03+00:00 January 9th, 2017|Statistics|1 Comment

One Comment

  1. jimbob January 9, 2017 at 4:07 pm

    Great article. Table is very succinctly ordered.

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