Gameweek 19 Clean Sheet Probability & Expected Goals

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Gameweek 19 Clean Sheet Probability & Expected Goals.

The purpose of this article is to help you identify the Premier League teams with the best clean sheet and goal scoring potential for  Gameweek 19.

Both of these factors are essential for FPL (or any fantasy football game) as your fortunes and point totals are hugely dependent on goals scored and clean sheets secured.

All data is provided by our partners: All Fantasy Tips.

How to use these numbers

These numbers are based on a statistical model where each team has a unique rating for scoring and conceding goals. This rating is based on various factors from the previous 10-50 Premier League matches, and it is updated on regular basis.

Making use of these numbers can give you a huge advantage in many ways:

Gain an edge by identifying the favourites and most likely scorers, compare the clean sheet potential of lower-tier clubs such as West Brom, Bournemouth and Stoke or solidify your initial gut picks with statistical findings.

Gameweek 19 Tips:

Clean sheets: Man United 61%, Southampton 51%, Chelsea 51%
Expected goals: Arsenal 2.92, Chelsea 2.36, Liverpool 2.01

Manchester United are in-form right now! The Red Devils have won 5 consecutive matches in all competitions. Zlatan is probably the hottest FPL pick after his fantastic scoring run, but this week the value is clearly in the United defense.

Mourinho’s men have kept clean sheets in 4 of the previous 5 matches, only conceding once against Crystal Palace two weeks ago. The home fixture against a weak Boro attack is very promising and United are by far the top candidate for yet another CS.

Chelsea are also in a superb winning run and the Stamford Bridge faithful should witness yet another home win with a clean sheet. Southampton are the best clean sheet pick outside the big teams.

Virgil Van Dijk is a popular defender pick in FPL and there’s a good chance he’ll get another high scoring GW. The opponent WBA have shot blanks in 3 of the previous 4 matches and don’t pose much threat according to the algorithm.

There is one team that clearly stands out above the rest when it comes to attacking potential: Arsenal. The Gunners were disappointing on Boxing Day, despite the fact they eventually defeated West Brom by a single goal at home.

Alexis Sanchez failed to score and Theo Walcott wasn’t even in the starting XI, which left many FPL managers fuming. Arsenal now lock horns with Crystal Palace, who have one of the worst defenses in the Premier League.

The algorithm doesn’t count the possible Sam Allardyce boost, but ‘Big Sam’ isn’t going to make a huge difference right away and has a horrible head-to-head record versus Wenger anyway.

Chelsea are also a solid goal-scoring candidates. The Blues are chasing their 13th win in a row and also welcome back key striker Diego Costa.

Liverpool are also expected to keep scoring, despite the fact they are meeting one of the top teams at home. Manchester City are known for their leaky defence and are expected to surrender at least twice in front of The Kop.

The past performances:

Here you can see how the top candidates of this algorithm have performed in the previous weeks. As you can see, the numbers can predict the outcomes pretty nicely!

Clean Sheet Accuracy (Top Candidates): 80% (12/15)
Goals Scored Per Match (Top Candidates): 2.47

By | 2017-04-05T22:52:12+00:00 December 28th, 2016|Statistics|0 Comments

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